Thursday, August 23, 2012

Charts 8-23: Another week ...

The pink wedge broke down, but this doesn't look like the end of the world.  Looks like we get another week of a low-volume, slow market, waiting on Bernanke's Jackson Hole address next week.

Of course, topping into the address would go against the reliable pattern lately for full moons to mark bottoms.  An alt scenario would be that 1426 marked the top, that we'll descend to the 1355 area this week (per my 3 peaks and a domed house count), and that Bernanke will trigger a wave 2 bounce off that decline.

My question has always been, can he expand the Fed's balance sheet in a meaningful way without a serious hike in the debt ceiling?  Another round of QE for Treasuries needs more room on the national VISA, doesn't it?

Or can the Fed just expand its balance sheet again and buy ... MBS?

Wave 4 in?  A, B, 5-wave C of 4

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