Thursday, September 29, 2016

Did we fail a 5th wave today?

It's too soon to tell; we have to break down through a few supports to confirm it.  But the Deutsche Bank AG fun is the real deal.  Maybe all the dogshit bonds Michael Lewis sold those guys in Liars Poker are finally coming due.

We ought to know in a few days, and I'll post the chart.  I'm thinking we can get as low as 830 SPX by the end of the year.  830 is the trendline between the 1987 and 2009 crash lows, and we'll get there in a tidy five-wave impulse, IMO.

Manfred Zimmel - Bradley model turns 2016

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Monday, September 26, 2016

Is it time yet for a blow-off move into EOQ?

From what I can tell, Hillary did not seize up tonight or even die on stage, so this counts as a good night for her.  With Fed doves speaking all week, some multiple times, we can now expect a strong move north.

I see it as a final thrust in an expanding wedge, a vertically-oriented megaphone, that can bring us to new all-time highs before the week is out.  After that, anything can blow up and end the party, as early as this Thursday with the final Q2 GDP read.  We could also hold out until the Friday close, so everyone can get paid before the weekend.

SPX 30D hourly

Over the weekend I hiked the 43-mile Devil's Dome Loop in the Pasayten Wilderness here in WA, and I can report that it is gorgeous.  Heaven on Earth, really.  But please don't move here.

Devil's Ridge Trail #752

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Charts 9-20: Drag on into the Election?

Hilsenrath published the plan for this Fall -- indeed, no rate hikes (planned, of course) until the December FOMC meeting.

This means that the only market event of any significance at all until then is the actual Election Day on November 8th.

Here is the ending-diagonal we have been following, with the final high coming on Tuesday, November 8.  It suggests that the wave 4 we have been in since the 2193 SPX high is more of a channel, with the .382 retrace coming late next week, on the final Q2 GDP number.

This much time on the clock ought to get UVXY under $10 again, what a destroyer.

SPX 09-20

Monday, September 12, 2016

Charts 9-12: Updated short-term count

Even with the big upswing today, I suspect we are still in a correction.  Here's the count.